NVIDIA is back at the center stage today, with Wall Street waiting for fresh numbers after the closing bell in the United States. The company is set to report its fourth quarter and full fiscal 2026 results for the year that ended January 25, 2026, followed by its earnings call at 2 p.m. Pacific time, which is 5 p.m. Eastern.
At the time of writing, the official Q4 and full-year figures are not out yet. What we have right now is the schedule and guidance that Nvidia has already shared, plus a clear view of how strong the last few quarters have been. The earnings release and the conference call later today will fill in the final piece of the fiscal 2026 story.
What Wall Street is expecting from Nvidia earnings
Analysts are looking for another blockbuster report. Consensus forecasts point to quarterly revenue in the mid 60 billion dollar range, roughly around 65.6 to 65.8 billion dollars, which would be about 67% higher than the same quarter a year ago.
Earnings per share expectations sit near 1.53 dollars for the quarter, again well above last year, as investors assume Nvidia’s data center business remains the main profit driver.
These are market estimates, not company promises. They matter because the stock is priced for perfection. If Nvidia simply meets those numbers, the reaction could be very different from a scenario where it delivers another wide beat or, on the other side, falls short.
How the last few quarters set the bar
To understand why expectations are so high, it helps to look at the recent run. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Nvidia reported record revenue of 57.0 billion dollars, up 22% from the prior quarter and 62% year over year. Data center revenue alone was 51.2 billion dollars, up 25% quarter over quarter and 66% from a year earlier, showing just how central AI and cloud demand have become to the business.
The second quarter told a similar story: total revenue of 46.7 billion dollars, up 6% from the previous quarter and 56% from the year before. That report also highlighted how export controls changed Nvidia’s mix. The company recorded no sales of its H20 data center chips to customers in China that quarter, instead releasing 180 million dollars of previously reserved H20 inventory and selling about 650 million dollars of unrestricted H20 units to a customer outside China.
Put together, those numbers explain why the market expects another step up in Q4. NVIDIA has been stacking record after record, and today’s release will show whether that pace is still intact.
Key themes to watch in the release and on the call
For general readers in the US who may not follow every chip headline, there are a few simple themes that will likely drive the reaction:
- Data center growth vs. expectations
The data center has turned into the heart of Nvidia’s story. Investors will look at how fast that segment is still growing and whether the mix of demand is broadening beyond a handful of hyperscale cloud customers. A slowdown here would quickly raise questions about whether early AI spending is cooling.
- Guidance for fiscal 2027
Markets care as much about the outlook as they do about the quarter that just ended. After earlier guidance pointed to tens of billions in quarterly revenue from AI hardware alone, traders want to see if management still feels comfortable pushing that line higher. Any cautious tone around cloud spending, enterprise AI projects, or government demand could shake confidence.
- Margins and supply constraints
Previous reports showed Nvidia navigating tight supply while keeping margins very strong. With capacity expanding and more competition emerging, analysts will study gross margin trends and any commentary on pricing, product mix, and manufacturing costs.
- Regulation and sales to China
Export rules have already forced Nvidia to rethink what it can sell into China, one of the world’s largest tech markets. The company’s disclosure about zero H20 sales to China in a recent quarter made that shift clear, and investors will want fresh details on how new products and other regions are offsetting that hit.
Why Nvidia earnings can move markets even if you do not own NVDA
NVIDIA’s report is not just another tech update. It has become a major event for the broader US market. Because the stock is a large weight in major indexes and a symbol for the entire AI buildout, a big move after hours can ripple through index funds, tech ETFs, and even retirement portfolios that do not directly hold Nvidia by name.
Commentators have described today’s earnings as a key test for the whole AI trade. If results and guidance support the idea that AI infrastructure spending still has a long runway, it can calm nerves after recent swings. If the tone is cautious, or if growth shows clear signs of slowing, traders may reassess how much they are willing to pay for high-growth tech in general.
What To Watch After Nvidia Releases Its Results Tonight
For now, the most important points are simple: know when the release hits, understand that expectations are very high, and keep an eye on data center growth, guidance, and any comments about AI demand and regulation. Once Nvidia posts its numbers after the US market close, the reaction in NVDA and in broader indexes will tell you how comfortable investors feel with the next chapter of the AI story.
